In this market you need to predict the match result: 1 — home win, X — draw, 2 — away win. The score after 90 minutes plus added time is taken into account. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are not considered.
What is the bookmaker’s margin
Coefficients include the bookmaker’s commission — the margin. If the coefficients for home win, draw and away win are converted into probabilities, their sum usually amounts to about 104–107%, although the real probabilities of all outcomes add up to 100%. The difference of 4–7% is the bookmaker’s margin. To make a profit in the long run the strategy must be more efficient than this margin.
Why the coefficient on a draw is usually high
A draw is usually considered a less probable result than a win by one of the teams. The lower the probability of the outcome according to the bookmaker’s assessment, the higher the coefficient. Therefore even in a match of roughly equal teams the coefficient on a draw is often 3.0 and higher.
What is taken into account in play-off matches
In 1X2 outcome bets only the result of regular time is taken into account. For example, if after 90 minutes the match ended 1:1 and then one of the teams won in extra time or on penalties, the winning outcome will be X — draw. A bet on the team’s win will lose even if that team advanced to the next round.