The total line is set at 3.5 goals, with odds almost equal on over and under (1.99 vs 1.70). Given Freiburg’s recent averages of 1.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, and Jena’s 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, the probability of more than 3.5 goals is assessed at 48-50 %.
The 1.14 price on a Freiburg win signals clear superiority. Taking into account the quality gap and current form, Freiburg are expected to win with a probability of 82-84 %, a draw is likely in 11-13 % of cases, and Jena’s victory chance is 4-6 %.