In a Liga de Expansión MX clash, Alacranes Durango defeated Atlético Morelia 3-1 at home. The hosts took a two-goal lead in the first half thanks to a penalty and another strike. The visitors pulled one back after the break, but could not find an equaliser.

Although both sides had equal possession, Atlético Morelia created more attacking moves, yet they were less clinical and received fewer cards. The hosts played a tougher game, finishing with a red card, but held on for the win.

Bookmakers price the over 2.5 goals line at 54 %. Durango average 3.2 goals per game recently, Morelia 2.6. Combining these figures, the probability of over 2.5 goals rises to 56 %.

Odds of 2.4-3.18-2.59 translate into roughly 42 % for a Durango win, 31 % for a draw and 39 % for Morelia. Adjusting for current form and head-to-head data yields 43 % – 30 % – 27 %.