Bookmakers price the over 3.5 goals line at 44.6 % and the under at 65.8 %. Given Xerez’s 1.0 goals scored / 1.6 conceded and Atlético Pueblonuevo’s 0.8 / 2.8 averages, the probability of over 3.5 goals is assessed at 38–42 %.

Implied probabilities stand at 76.9 % for a Xerez win, 22 % for a draw and 12 % for an away win. Adjusting for current form and head-to-head history, the estimates are 68–72 %, 20–24 % and 8–12 % respectively.