In the Uruguayan league match, Progreso hosted Defensor Sporting and fell 0–1. The only goal came in the very first minute, and despite the hosts’ territorial edge and 57 % possession, they could not find an equaliser. Both sides earned four corners and three yellow cards apiece, with no red cards shown. Defensor Sporting defended their slim lead and left with all three points.

The under 2.5 goals market offers the best value. Four of the last five head-to-head clashes produced two goals or fewer, and both sides average under 2.4 goals per game in recent matches.

The probability of a Progreso win is estimated at 39 %, a draw at 31 %, and a Defensor Sporting victory at 30 %.