Hearts will host Rangers in matchweek 20 of the Scottish Premiership

The hosts have been inconsistent: after a 1-7 thrashing by Celtic they earned points against Nordsjælland and St Mirren, yet followed up with two draws and a loss to Falkirk. The visitors are steadier, winning three and drawing two of their last five, including six points from six against Celtic.

The sides have combined for 27 goals in their last five outings each, but Rangers’ defence looks more solid. Bookmakers price the over 2.5 line at 59 %, yet historical H2H data (four of five games went over) and Rangers’ 2.6 goals-per-game average suggest the true probability of over 2.5 is closer to 53 %.

Rangers to win is offered at 2.12 (≈ 47 % implied). The hosts are priced at 32 % and the draw at 28 %. Given the gap in motivation and current form, Rangers’ real chance of victory can be put around 49-50 %.