Atlético Madrid (W) vs Valencia (W). Spanish Women’s Championship.

Atlético Madrid recorded three wins and two losses in their last five matches, conceding in four of them. Valencia managed only one victory in the same period and lost the other four, shipping more than two goals per game on average.

Bookmakers price the 3.5-goal line at 2.2 for over and 1.57 for under. Atlético average 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded; Valencia average 0.6 and 1.4. The combined expected total is around 3.6 goals, giving the over 3.5 a 54 % probability.

Odds of 1.25 on Atlético imply an 80 % chance. Factoring in home advantage and squad quality, Atlético’s win probability is 78 %, a draw 15 % and a Valencia win 7 %.