A total of 2.5 goals appears realistic. Bergantiños average 2.8 goals scored per game, Ourense just 0.8. With both over and under odds at 1.83, the hosts’ attacking output nudges the probability of clearing the line to 53 %.
Bookmaker prices imply 53 % for a Bergantiños win, 29 % for a draw and 28 % for Ourense. Factoring in home advantage and offensive disparity, the adjusted chances stand at 48 % – 30 % – 22 %.