Athletic Bilbao edged Real Sociedad 2-1 in the Basque derby at home. Both sides struck within the opening minute, giving the hosts a 2-1 lead after the first half. Despite enjoying 62 % possession and creating 53 dangerous attacks compared with 38, the visitors could not find an equaliser. Athletic converted a penalty and held on for the win.

Bookmakers price the over 2.5 goals line at 51 %. Athletic average 1.8 goals per game in their last five matches, while Sociedad average 3.4. Given that four of the last five head-to-head fixtures finished under 2.5, the probability of under 2.5 is assessed at 49 %.

The 2.06 quote on a home win equates to a 49 % implied probability. The draw and away win sit at 26 % and 25 %. Considering that the home side won four of the last five encounters, the chance of an Athletic victory is estimated at 48 %, a draw at 27 % and an away win at 25 %.