In the 10th round of the Eredivisie, Excelsior suffered a crushing 0–9 home defeat to Twente. The visitors opened the scoring in the very first minute and led 5–0 at half-time. The second half was no different, with Twente adding four more unanswered goals. Ball possession was 21 % to 79 % and corners 0–8. Excelsior had one player sent off, while Twente were awarded two penalties.

The line is set at 3.5 goals with odds 2.07 for over and 1.79 for under. Given the averages — Excelsior score 0.8 and concede 2.6, Twente score 2.0 and concede 0.8 — the probability of over 3.5 goals is estimated at 43%.

Odds of 4.96 / 4.65 / 1.6 reflect Twente’s dominance. Factoring in recent form and head-to-head results, probabilities stand at: Excelsior win — 12%, draw — 19%, Twente win — 69%.