On Sunday afternoon Arsenal Women fell 0-1 to Aston Villa in the Women’s Super League. The visitors struck on the very first minute and then parked the bus. Despite enjoying 64 % possession and nine corners, the hosts could not find a way through. Villa defended stoutly, limited themselves to just 21 attacks, yet took their only opportunity to leave with all three points.

Based on the bookmaker's odds for total 4.5 goals (Over 1.99, Under 1.7), the probability of a match with more than 4.5 goals is around 50%. Considering Arsenal (W) averages 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match, while Aston Villa (W) scores 2.0 and concedes 1.4, the expected total is approximately 6.8 goals. Therefore, the probability of over 4.5 goals is estimated at 65%.

With odds of 1.01 on Arsenal (W) winning, their success probability is around 95%. The draw probability at 11.7 odds is approximately 8%, and Aston Villa (W) winning at 23 odds is valued at 4%.