Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov in the 29th round of the Russian Premier League

The Kazan side has shown inconsistency lately: three defeats and two draws. They have conceded in every one of their last five games, averaging 2.2 goals against. The Samara team has three losses and two draws in its last five, failing to score in three of them and conceding 1.4 goals per match on average.

The bookmaker line at 2.5 goals prices the over at 47 % and the under at 54 %. Based on both teams’ recent scoring averages (Rubin 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded; Krylia 1.4 scored, 1.4 conceded), the implied probability is 48 % for over and 52 % for under.

Odds of 2.42-3.43-3.22 translate to 41 % for a Rubin win, 29 % for a draw, and 31 % for a Krylia win. Adjusting for current form and head-to-head results, the probabilities are closer to 39 % – 32 % – 29 %.