On Sunday evening at the Manuel Martínez Valero stadium, Elche hosted Valencia in a La Liga fixture. The hosts completely dominated possession, holding nearly 70 % of the ball and earning six corners to the visitors’ two. However, the only goal of the match came as early as the first minute, proving decisive. Valencia defended resolutely to secure the narrow win despite their opponents’ clear attacking superiority.

With the total line at 2.5 (odds 2.01 over, 1.93 under) and average goals scored per match (Elche/Valladolid 1.8, Valencia 1.6), the probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 52% and under at 48%.

Match odds (2.55 home, 3.52 draw, 2.96 away) translate into an estimated 39% chance of an Elche win, 28% for a draw and 33% for a Valencia victory.