Shimshon host AS Nordia in Liga Alef South, Israel.

Shimshon have found form, winning three of their last five fixtures, including a 3-0 victory over Kfar-Saba 1928. AS Nordia are struggling: only one win in five games and heavy defeats 0-4 and 0-5.

Bookmakers price the over 3.5 goals line at 50 % and the under at 59 %. Shimshon average 2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in the last five matches, while Nordia score 0.4 and concede 3.6. Given the attacking gap and Nordia’s defensive fragility, the probability of over 3.5 goals is assessed at 52 %.

Odds of 1.03-9.1-22 imply a 97 % chance of a Shimshon win, 11 % draw and 5 % Nordia win. Accounting for recent form and head-to-head trends, the probabilities are adjusted to 78 % Shimshon win, 15 % draw and 7 % Nordia win.