Holywell Town vs Penybont, Cymru Premier.

Holywell Town picked up only three points from the last five fixtures and conceded 13 goals. Penybont collected nine points, scoring 12 and conceding 7.

With a line at 3.5, bookmakers price the over at 47.6 %. Given that Holywell conceded at least two goals in four of their last five matches and Penybont regularly score two or three, the probability of over 3.5 is assessed at 52 %.

The 1.24 price on Penybont implies an 80.6 % chance. Considering the gap in squad strength and recent form, Penybont’s win probability is estimated at 78 %, draw 15 %, Holywell win 7 %.