In Italy’s Serie D, Castrumfavara host AS Regina 1914.

Castrumfavara have recorded two wins and three losses in their last five fixtures, scoring three goals and conceding four. Regina have three wins, one draw and one defeat, conceding seven goals over the same period.

Bookmakers price the probability of over 2.5 goals at 54 % (odds 1.85). Given Regina’s average output of 1.4 goals scored and conceded per match, and Castrumfavara’s 0.6-0.8 figures, a match with three or more goals is plausible.

The home win is valued at 20 % (odds 4.95), the draw at 27 % (3.7), and an away win at 62 % (1.61). Regina’s three victories in their last five outings underline their edge.