Phoenix Rising host Lexington in Matchday 16 of the USL Championship.

Phoenix Rising alternated results: wins 3-1 over Orange County and 3-2 over Las Vegas Lights, but defeats 3-0 to Oakland and 1-3 to El Paso. Lexington look sharper, beating Las Vegas 5-3, El Paso 3-1 and Orange County 6-0.

Phoenix average 2.8 goals per game, Lexington 3.4. Bookmakers set the line at 2.5 and imply a 65 % probability of over, which matches the recent scoring pattern.

Odds imply 44 % home win, 29 % draw, 37 % away win. Given Lexington’s three straight victories in head-to-head fixtures, their win chance is closer to 41 %, draw 27 % and home win 32 %.