Città di Anagni will host Paganese in round 23 of Italy’s Serie D.

Città di Anagni have recorded three wins and two draws in their last five fixtures, conceding just one goal. Paganese followed two straight wins with consecutive away defeats to Sarnese and Gelbison Cilento.

Bookmakers price the over 2.5 goal line at 53 %. Città di Anagni average 2.4 goals per game recently, Paganese 2.8. Based on these numbers the probability of over 2.5 goals is assessed at 51 %.

Odds of 3.35-3.3-2.05 translate into implied probabilities of 30 % home win, 30 % draw and 49 % away win. Adjusting for Città di Anagni’s strong home record and Paganese’s poor away form lifts the home side to 33 %, the draw to 32 % and drops the visitors to 35 %.