Lazio defeated Cagliari 2-1 at home in Serie A. After a 1-1 first half, the hosts secured the win in the second half by dominating possession (74 % vs 26 %). Lazio created more dangerous attacks (48 vs 25) and capitalized on Cagliari’s three yellow cards and one red card, which disrupted the visitors’ rhythm.

Lazio have averaged 4.4 goals per game over the last five matches, while Cagliari average 4.2. With odds of 2.06 for over 2.5 and 1.89 for under 2.5, the probability of exceeding the line is 51 %, and the probability of staying under is 49 %.

With odds of 1.66 for a Lazio win, 4.06 for a draw and 6.02 for a Cagliari victory, the estimated probabilities are 56 % for the home side, 24 % for a draw and 20 % for the visitors.