Rotherham United host Shrewsbury Town in English League Two.

Rotherham collected only one point from their last five matches and conceded eleven goals, while Shrewsbury earned seven points and allowed six.

Bookmakers price the over 2.5 goals at 48.8 % probability and the under at 58.5 %. Given Rotherham’s 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game recently, versus Shrewsbury’s 1.2-1.2, the chance of a match going over 2.5 goals is estimated at 44 %.

Implied probabilities from the odds are 42.6 % home win, 31.3 % draw, 34.0 % away win. Adjusting for Shrewsbury’s better recent results, their win chance rises to 37 %, Rotherham’s drops to 33 % and the draw stays near 30 %.