Cagliari will host Bologna in matchday 26 of Serie A on 24 February at 16:00.

Cagliari have collected eleven points from the last five fixtures, conceding only once. Bologna earned seven points in the same period and conceded nine goals.

Bookmakers price the over 2.5 goals line at 45%. Cagliari average 1.0 goal per game recently, Bologna 1.4. Only one of the last five head-to-heads produced three or more goals, so the probability of over 2.5 is assessed at 48%.

Implied probabilities from odds are 30% for Cagliari, 40% for Bologna and 32% for the draw. Adjusting for current goal difference (Cagliari +4, Bologna -2) the estimates shift to 33%, 37% and 30% respectively.