Búzios and Belford-Roxo played out a tight contest in the Carioca League B2, with the visitors claiming a narrow victory. The first half ended goalless, and the only goal came just one minute after the restart. Both sides recorded identical possession figures, corner counts and yellow-card tallies, while neither team earned a penalty or saw a player dismissed. Búzios registered more attacking moves, yet they were unable to convert their slight territorial edge.

That solitary strike proved decisive as Belford-Roxo held on for all three points. The visitors showed discipline and organisation to protect their lead until the final whistle. Despite the balanced statistics across most metrics, the away side proved more clinical in front of goal. For Búzios, the result highlighted the need to improve their finishing.

Across the last five matches Búzios scored nine goals and conceded thirteen, while Belford-Roxo netted nine and let in eight. With the over 3.5 line priced at 2.02, the probability of four or more goals is estimated at 48 %.

Odds of 1.28 on Belford-Roxo translate to an implied 71 % chance of victory for the visitors, whereas the hosts’ probability of taking points stands at 12 %.