Sabah Baku against Qarabag in the Azerbaijan Premier League

Sabah Baku recorded three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five fixtures. Qarabag collected ten points over the same period, remaining unbeaten in three matches and losing twice.

Bookmakers price the over 2.5 goals line at 64.5%. Sabah Baku average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, Qarabag 2.2 and 1.8. The attacking profiles and defensive records suggest a 67% likelihood that the match exceeds 2.5 goals.

Odds of 2.24–3.45–2.59 translate into implied probabilities of 44.6%–29.0%–38.6%. Sabah Baku have won four of their last five home games. Qarabag have won only two of five away matches. Estimated win probabilities: Sabah Baku 41%, Qarabag 33%, draw 26%.