Atletico Grau will host ADT Tarma in round 14 of the Peruvian Primera.

Grau have won two of their last five matches and lost three, while Tarma recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat, conceding nine goals during that stretch.

In the last five head-to-heads the sides have averaged 3.8 goals per game. Bookmakers price the over 2.5 line at roughly 53 % and the under at 47 %. Grau’s recent averages (1.4 goals scored, 2.2 conceded) and Tarma’s (0.8 scored, 2.0 conceded) suggest the likelihood of crossing or staying under 2.5 goals is almost even.

Odds of 1.64-3.74-4.98 translate into implied probabilities of about 61 % for a Grau win, 27 % for a draw and 20 % for Tarma. Considering home advantage and Grau’s slightly better scoring form, the true chance for the hosts is closer to 55-58 %.