Union Espanola vs Santiago Wanderers, Chilean Primera B

Union Espanola recorded 1-0, 0-1, 0-2, 1-1 and 1-2 in their last five fixtures, struggling to score and conceding in four of them. Santiago Wanderers produced a 4-1 win but then lost three consecutive matches by one- or two-goal margins.

Average goals per game for Union Espanola stand at 2.4, for Santiago Wanderers at 2.8. With the over-2.5 line priced at 1.63, the implied probability of clearing the total is estimated at 55–58 %.

Odds of 1.90 on the hosts imply a 48 % chance of victory, 3.42 on the visitors 26 %, and 3.48 on a draw 26 %. Factoring in home advantage and points-per-game differential, Union Espanola’s win probability is assessed at 47–50 %.