Nacional Montevideo will host Liverpool Montevideo in matchweek 15 of the Uruguayan Primera División on 12 October.

Nacional collected four wins from their last five outings, including victories over Defensor Sporting and Atlético Rentistas. Liverpool won three of their previous five games but fell to Cerro Largo.

The market prices the over 2.5 goals line at 52 %. Nacional average 2.6 goals per game in their last five matches, Liverpool 2.4. A match total of three goals or more looks the likeliest outcome.

Bookmakers assess Nacional’s win probability at 53 %, a draw at 30 % and a Liverpool victory at 27 %. Given home advantage and three wins in the last five head-to-heads, Nacional’s real chance is closer to 55 %.