Necaxa vs Juárez in round 12 of Liga MX

Necaxa have collected only two points from their last five matches, with two draws and three defeats. The team concedes 2.4 goals per game on average and scores 1.4. Juárez appear slightly more stable: two wins, two draws and one loss, while scoring 0.8 goals and conceding 1.8 on average.

Bookmakers price the probability of over 2.5 goals at 63 % and under at 44 %. Necaxa’s average goal tally in the last five games is 3.8 per match, Juárez’s is 2.6. With the over 2.5 line offered at 1.58 and under at 2.27, the probability of over 2.5 goals is assessed at 58 %.

Odds of 1.70 for Necaxa, 3.92 for a draw and 4.25 for Juárez correspond to implied probabilities of 59 %, 26 % and 24 %. Considering the defensive frailties of both sides, the likelihood of a home win is estimated at 52 %, a draw at 29 % and an away win at 19 %.