In match-week 23 of the Egyptian Premier League, Zamalek will host Al-Mokawloon at Petrosport Stadium.

Zamalek’s form has been patchy: two straight losses were followed by three clean-sheet wins. Al-Mokawloon are steadier, mixing wins and draws, yet they look less convincing on the road.

Zamalek average 1.8 goals per game, Al-Mokawloon 2.2. Bookmakers price the over 2.5 at 43 % (odds 2.33) and the under at 66 % (1.51). Based on both sides’ records, the true chance of over 2.5 is closer to 38 %, under 2.5 around 62 %.

The hosts are quoted at 53 % (1.89), the draw at 34 % (2.97) and the visitors at 24 % (4.17). Adjusting for Zamalek’s home strength and Al-Mokawloon’s poor away form yields probabilities of 56 %, 31 % and 13 %.