Swindon Town host Port Vale in round 4 of League Two. The match is set for Saturday evening at the County Ground.

Swindon’s form is patchy: a 4-1 thrashing of Forest Green and a win over Cheltenham sit alongside defeats to Oldham and Cardiff. Port Vale remain hard to beat, recording goalless draws with Crewe and Tranmere, yet losing to stronger opposition.

Average goals per game over the last five matches stand at 2.8 for Swindon and 1.6 for Port Vale. With the over 2.5 line priced at 2.01, the probability of the match exceeding that total is estimated at 54 %.

The 3.14 – 3.44 – 2.18 odds imply a slight edge for the visitors. Given Port Vale’s 4 wins in the last 5 head-to-heads, the implied probabilities are: Swindon win – 29 %, draw – 31 %, Port Vale win – 40 %.