Coritiba will host Gremio Porto Alegre in round 12 of the Brazilian Serie A.

Coritiba have slipped after 0:4 and 0:5 defeats. Gremio remain inconsistent with three draws and two losses in their last five outings.

Coritiba average 1.4 goals per game recently, Gremio 1.8. With a 1.95 line on over 2.5, the probability of the total going over is estimated at 51%.

Bookmakers rate Coritiba’s win chance at 45%, draw 29%, Gremio 30%. Given the hosts’ blunt attack, realistic probabilities are 42% win for Coritiba, 31% draw, 27% for Gremio.