Fakel Voronezh vs Krasnodar in the Russian Cup

Fakel have conceded in four of their last five matches and scored no more than one goal. Krasnodar kept a clean sheet in four of the same five fixtures and did not allow a single shot on target in two of them.

The bookmaker line suggests a 50,5 % chance of over 2,5 goals. Given Fakel’s low scoring rate (0,2 goals per game) and Krasnodar’s defensive record (0,6 goals conceded), the probability of the total being exceeded is estimated at 44 %.

The 1,93 odds on Krasnodar correspond to an implied probability of 51,8 %. Considering the gap in squad quality and four wins in five matches, the true chance of an away victory is closer to 58 %. Fakel’s chance of winning stands at 22 %, draw probability at 20 %.