Stuttgart II take on Alemannia in Germany’s third tier

Stuttgart II remain unbeaten in their last five matches yet drew three of them, showing defensive inconsistencies. Alemannia managed just one win in the same period, losing three times and conceding over two goals per game on average.

Bookmakers price the over 3.5 goals at 47.6 % with a line of 3.5. Given that Stuttgart II conceded 11 goals in their last five outings and Alemannia average 1.8 goals scored over the same span, the probability of over 3.5 goals is assessed at 51 %.

Odds of 3.12-3.64-1.96 translate to 51 % for an Alemannia win, 32 % for Stuttgart II and 27 % for a draw. Considering Alemannia won three of the last five head-to-heads, their win probability rises to 48 %, draw 30 % and Stuttgart II success 22 %.