Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils in the Latvian Higher League

Jelgava have shown inconsistent form in recent matches: a 0:3 defeat to Liepaja, a 2:4 loss to Riga Football School, a 0:1 defeat to Riga FC, a 0:0 draw with Grobinа, and a 0:1 loss to Super Nova. BFC Daugavpils have been more solid: a 2:1 win over Auda, a 2:1 victory against Ogre United, a 0:0 draw with Liepaja, a 1:2 loss to Riga Football School, and a 1:1 draw with Riga FC.

Jelgava average 1.8 goals per game, while BFC Daugavpils score 1.2 on average. Given the over 2.5 odds at 1.78 and under 2.5 at 1.89, the probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 48%, and under 2.5 at 52%.

Based on the odds for a Jelgava win (2.77), draw (3.3), and BFC Daugavpils win (2.25), the probability of a home win is 33%, a draw 28%, and an away win 39%.