In a Serie D clash, Giviborgo hosted Siena and suffered a 0-4 defeat. The visitors broke the deadlock in the first half and controlled the game thereafter. Despite holding 54 % possession to Siena’s 46 %, the hosts managed only two corners compared with four for the away side. Both teams received two yellow cards and finished with eleven players.

Average goals in Ghibizano’s last five matches stand at 3.0; Siena average 2.4. The over 2.5 line is priced at 1.78, implying roughly 56 % probability. Four of the last five head-to-heads finished under 2.5 goals, so the under 2.5 probability is assessed near 51 %.

Odds of 4.75-3.45-1.69 translate into an estimated 59 % chance of a Siena win, 29 % draw and 21 % home win. Siena have won three of the last five meetings, with one draw and one Ghibizano victory.