Avellino host Padova in Serie B

Avellino’s recent form is mixed: a 4:1 win over Sampdoria and a 1:0 win at Modena contrast with draws against Cesena and Palermo. Padova have struggled, losing three of five games, including 0:2 to Carrarese.

The total line sits at 2.5 with odds 1.98 over and 1.77 under. Avellino average 1.6 goals per game, Padova 1.0. Given that four of the last five head-to-heads went over 2.5, the probability of over 2.5 goals is assessed at 52%.

Odds 2.18-3.32-3.23 suggest a slight home edge. Avellino’s home wins and three victories in five H2H meetings support a 44% chance of an Avellino win, 29% draw, 27% Padova win.