In matchday 12 of the Russian Premier League, Dynamo Makhachkala suffered a 0-3 home defeat to Rostov. The visitors struck first in the opening minute and added a second goal before half-time, then sealed the win after the break.

Dynamo held 48 % possession to Rostov’s 52 % and earned two corners to one. The hosts launched 20 dangerous attacks compared with 32 by the visitors, but picked up five yellow cards and one red, while Rostov received four bookings. Neither side converted a penalty.

Bookmakers price the probability of over 2.5 goals at 40.3 %. Given Dynamo’s average of 1.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, and Rostov’s 0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 46 %.

The probability of a home win is assessed at 35 %, a draw at 30 %, and an away win at 35 %.