Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro, Copa Uruguay

Wanderers’ recent form is uneven: after a 3-0 win over Central Español came 1-5 and 1-5 defeats to Montevideo City Torque and Peñarol/Grêmio. Cerro alternates results as well, beating Albion 2-1 and Defensor 2-1, yet losing 0-4 to Liverpool and drawing 1-1 with Boston River.

Head-to-head fixtures average 2.4 goals. The 2.0 total line is priced at 1.9 for both over and under, indicating balanced expectations. Probability of over 2 goals: 48 %, under 2 goals: 52 %.

Bookmaker implied probabilities: Wanderers win 35 %, Cerro win 41 %, draw 30 %. Recent form and H2H lean slightly toward Cerro.