In the Italian Serie D clash, Ancona edged out Atletico Ascoli 1-0 at home. The only goal came as early as the first minute, and the hosts protected that lead until the final whistle. Ancona controlled 63 % of possession, created 38 dangerous attacks compared to 22, and earned six corners to three. Both sides picked up one yellow card each, with no red cards shown.

Ancona average 3.6 goals per game, Ascoli 3.2. Bookmakers imply a 57 % chance of over 2.5 goals and 51 % for under. Based on these figures, the probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 52 %.

Odds of 1.69 for Ancona and 4.73 for Ascoli translate to 59 % and 21 %. Given Ancona’s three wins in the last five head-to-heads, the probabilities are 54 % home win, 23 % away win, 23 % draw.