In matchday 12 of La Liga, Getafe comfortably defeated Sevilla 3-1 at home. The visitors took the lead before half-time, yet after the break the hosts turned the game around with three unanswered goals. Possession was almost even (48 % vs 52 %), and most other key metrics were level. A red card shown to Sevilla in the second half disrupted their rhythm and handed Getafe the platform to seal the points.

Bookmakers price the over 1.5 goals line at 61 % probability, in line with the teams’ recent scoring averages: Getafe 0.8 scored, 2.6 conceded; Sevilla 1.8 scored, 2.8 conceded. The implied likelihood of over 1.5 goals stands at 64 %.

Odds of 3.02-3.10-2.76 translate into nearly even chances. Factoring in the slight edge in Sevilla’s attack, probabilities are estimated at 31 % home win, 33 % draw and 36 % away win.