Fakel Voronezh will host Rodina Moscow in matchday 29 of the Russian Premier League.

Fakel have conceded 2.8 goals per game and scored 0.8 over their last five matches. Rodina Moscow average 1.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded in the same period.

Bookmakers price the over 2.5 goals at 48 % and the under at 54 %. The average goals in Fakel’s last five fixtures is 3.6; for Rodina it is 4.6. Expect a two-to-three-goal game.

Fakel’s win probability is quoted at 46 %, the draw at 28 % and Rodina’s victory at 27 %. Adjusting for squad depth and recent numbers, the true chances sit around 42 % for the hosts and 29 % each for a draw or an away win.