Zhetysu vs Tobol Kostanay, Kazakhstan Premier League

Zhetysu’s recent results are mixed: three defeats and two wins in the last five matches, including victories over Kaisar and Irtysh. Tobol remain steadier, with three wins and two losses, and have scored freely in their most recent outings.

Zhetysu average 0.8 goals per game, Tobol 2.2, while the visitors concede 1.6. Given the odds of 1.81 for over 2.5 and 1.96 for under, the probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 51 %.

The 2.77 / 3.52 / 2.39 price implies 36 % / 28 % / 42 % for home win, draw and away win. Factoring in Tobol’s form and head-to-head trends, the adjusted chances are 34 % for Zhetysu, 29 % for a draw and 37 % for Tobol.