This Saturday in Serie D, Vigors Senigallia will host Ancona 1905.

Vigors Senigallia’s last five matches have been inconsistent: two wins, two losses and a draw. Ancona 1905 have been more stable, recording three victories, one draw and one defeat.

The total line is set at 2.5 goals with odds of 1.86 and 1.84. Given Vigors’ average of 1.8 goals per game and Ancona’s 1.6, the probability of over 2.5 is estimated at 52%.

Home win probability is 41%, draw 32%, away win 37%. With odds 2.45-3.1-2.7, Ancona’s victory looks marginally more likely, but the margin is narrow.