On 1 November Rwanda Police edged Bugesera 1-0 in a tight Rwandan Championship clash. The only goal came inside the opening minute and proved decisive. Although the visitors enjoyed 59 % possession to 41 %, the hosts remained compact and limited clear-cut chances. Both sides had similar corner counts (5–4), while Rwanda Police picked up two yellow cards to Bugesera’s one.

Bookmakers price the over 1.5 goals line at 62 % and the under at 45 %. Across their last five outings Rwanda Police scored one goal and conceded four; Bugesera netted six and let in three. These averages suggest an approximate 58 % chance of over 1.5 goals.

The implied probabilities stand at 41 % for a Rwanda Police win, 35 % for a draw and 33 % for Bugesera. Given the head-to-head record of alternating victories and the quoted odds of 2.42-2.85-3.05, Rwanda Police are assessed at a 39 % chance of victory.