On Sunday, Charlton Athletic hosted Chelsea in the Women’s Super League. The visitors established a commanding lead by half-time, scoring four unanswered goals. In the second half Chelsea completed a 0-6 rout, controlling 71 % of possession and launching 107 dangerous attacks compared with Charlton’s 32. Despite earning three corners, the home side failed to create any clear-cut chances.

Bookmakers price the over 4.5 goals line at 50 % and the under at 59 %. Charlton average 1.4 goals per game, Chelsea 2.4. Given the gulf in quality and Chelsea’s attacking output, the probability of over 4.5 goals is assessed at 48 %.

Odds imply a 96 % chance for Chelsea, 6 % for a draw and 3 % for Charlton. Historical results (4:0 and 0:4) and current form support a 95 % probability of a Chelsea win, 4 % for a draw and 1 % for Charlton.