Independiente del Valle dominated LDU Quito 2-0 in the Ecuadorian league clash. The hosts held 59 % possession and launched 34 dangerous attacks to the visitors’ 18. After a goalless first half, the decisive goals arrived early in the second period, sealing a comfortable win. LDU picked up the only yellow card of the evening and failed to trouble the home defence. The result keeps Independiente firmly in control of the local derby.

With a 2.5 total line priced at 1.78 for over, the implied probability sits at 56 %. Considering both sides average 1.4–1.6 goals per game, the chance of the total going over is assessed at 54–57 %.

Odds of 1.90 / 3.61 / 3.74 translate to probabilities near 53 / 28 / 27 %. Factoring in home advantage and a more reliable defence, Independiente del Valle’s win probability is estimated at 48–51 %, a draw at 27–29 %, and LDU Quito’s win at 22–25 %.