Pakhtakor will host Neftchi Fergana in the next round of the Uzbekistan Super League.

Pakhtakor’s recent form shows mixed results: a 3-1 home win over Bunyodkor and a 2-1 away victory against Mashal are offset by three draws. Neftchi Fergana have struggled, losing 1-3 to Al-Nassr and 2-4 to Kokand-1912, with only one win in their last five outings.

Average goals in the last five matches: Pakhtakor 1.6 scored, 1.2 conceded; Neftchi 1.8 scored, 2.4 conceded. With the over-2.5 line priced at 1.69, the probability of clearing the total stands at 55–58 %.

The 2.21 odds on a Pakhtakor win imply roughly 42 % probability, 2.99 on the visitors suggests 31 %, and the draw at 3.53 equates to 27 %. Given Pakhtakor’s home advantage and Neftchi’s defensive lapses, a home victory appears the most likely outcome.