In matchweek 23 of the Azerbaijan Premier League, Zira host Sumgayit.

Zira collected only four points from their last five fixtures, drawing three and losing 0-5 to Sabah. Sumgayit have been in better form, winning four and drawing one, scoring 10 goals in the process.

Bookmakers price the over 2.5 goals line at 52.6 % and the under at 56.5 %. Zira average 0.8 goals per game recently, Sumgayit 2.0. Based on these numbers, the probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 47 %.

Odds of 1.63-3.44-4.88 imply win probabilities of 61 % for Zira, 29 % for a draw and 20 % for Sumgayit. Factoring in Sumgayit’s current form, the chances adjust to 54 % home win, 31 % draw and 15 % away win.