Newcastle Jets will host Macarthur Sydney in the next round of the Australian A-League.

Newcastle Jets have been inconsistent lately: two losses and three matches in which they conceded at least two goals. Macarthur Sydney look slightly steadier, recording three wins, one loss and one clean-sheet draw, keeping a clean sheet in four of five outings.

The average goals per game for the Jets’ last five matches is 3.6; for Macarthur it is 2.8. Bookmakers price the over 3.5 goals at 46.3 % (odds 2.16) and the under at 57.1 % (1.75). Given the numbers, the under 3.5 appears more likely.

The implied probabilities are 48.1 % for a home win, 25.4 % for a draw and 30.1 % for an away win. Factoring in home advantage and the odds, Newcastle Jets hold the edge.