Bookmakers price the over 2.5 goals line at 44 % probability and the under at 62 %. Given Facilnet’s attacking output and lack of data on Salgeiro, the true probability for over 2.5 goals is assessed at 48 %.

The betting market implies 27 % for a Salgeiro win, 31 % for a draw and 50 % for Facilnet. Adjusted for the visitors’ strong recent results and the absence of home-team data, the probabilities are revised to 24 % Salgeiro win, 29 % draw and 47 % Facilnet win.