In a tense Group 1 clash of Spain’s Segunda División RFEF, hosts Club Portugalete edged Arosa 3-2. Trailing 0-1 at half-time, the visitors fought back to level and then take the lead, only to be denied by a late home surge. Both sides shared possession equally, yet Arosa created more attacking threats and earned one extra corner. The guests also collected three yellow cards to Portugalete’s two, and were awarded the game’s only penalty, which proved fruitless. Ultimately, a decisive late moment handed the points to the hosts.

Portugalete average 2.4 goals per game, Arosa 1.8. With the total-over-2.5 line priced at 1.75, the chance of more than 2.5 goals is estimated at 47%.

The 1.89 odds on a Portugalete win imply a 49% probability, the 3.44 draw line 28%, and Arosa’s win at 3.5 equates to 23%.